Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California by Jenna Nobles, Alison Gemmill, Sungsik Hwang, and Florencia Torche (2023)

The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer-run fertility trends, we observe modest, short-term reductions in births from mid-2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign-born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.-born population, the short-term pandemic-attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic’s accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.